Thesis supervisor: Tamás Krámer
Location of studies (in Hungarian): BME Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Abbreviation of location of studies: BMEVV
Description of the research topic:
The subject of this research topic is the flood hazard below reservoirs that are impounded by earth fill dams in a hilly topography, restricted to moderate storage volumes and catchment areas.
While earth fill dams are not among the highest, they are by far the most common type of dam structure. Reservoirs behind these dams represent a flood risk to the downstream valley due to the possibility of a rapid dam failure. Indeed, the consequent flood is potentially catastrophic because its peak magnitude exceeds that of natural flood waves by far. The cause of the failure may be high water level, earthquake, deterioration of the foundation, etc., whereas its mechanism may be through erosion of an overtopped crest, piping or geotechnical stability loss.
Owing to its economic and strategic importance, risk analysis of dams has a vast international literature. Numerous general directives exist, some of which describe a standard, three-step procedure – identify, analyse and evaluate risk – and distinguish between various levels of detail, from qualitative to quantitative (e.g. CNEGP SPANCOLD 2012, Bowles et al 2013, FEMA 2015).
A quantitative evaluation based on numerical simulations is required to map the distribution of flood hazard associated with various probabilities of exceedance. Sophisticated procedures have been developed to model the physical components (load events, dam failure modes, evolution of the breach, flood propagation in downstream valley) and to resolve randomness and uncertainty (Monte Carlo methods, fault tree analysis, Bayesian networks, etc.). However, more research is needed to find advantageous model architectures that balance cost, resolution and accuracy specifically for the present subject. Ideas can be borrowed from the flood risk analysis of river levee systems (e.g. Dawson et al. 2005, Di Baldassare et al. 2009)
The objective of the research is to develop and demonstrate using case studies a physically-based method to map the probability and severity of flooding in the valley below earth fill reservoir dams typical in Hungary. The method should build on generally available input data and be economical so as to serve potentially in a countrywide evaluation.
Number of students who can be accepted: 1
Deadline for application: 2024-05-31
2024. IV. 17. ODT ülés Az ODT következő ülésére 2024. június 14-én, pénteken 10.00 órakor kerül sor a Semmelweis Egyetem Szenátusi termében (Bp. Üllői út 26. I. emelet).
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